Plant Protect. Sci., 2009, 45(10):S3-S10 | DOI: 10.17221/2831-PPS

Preparing for changes in plant disease due to climate change

Michael Warren Shaw
School of Biological Sciences, University of Reading, Reading, UK

Climate change will change patterns of disease through changes in host distribution and phenology, changes in plant-associated microflora and direct biological effects on rapidly evolving pathogens. Short-term forecast models coupled with weather generated from climate simulations may be a basis for projection; however, they will often fail to capture long-term trends effectively. Verification of predictions is a major difficulty; the most convincing method would be to "back-forecast" observed historical changes. Unfortunately, we lack of empirical data over long time-spans; most of what is known concerns invasions, in which climate is not the main driving factor. In one case where long-term prevalence can be deduced, climate had little to do with change. Resilience to surprises should be the most important policy aim.

Keywords: climate change; population dynamics; plant disease forecasting; modelling; mutation

Published: December 31, 2009  Show citation

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Shaw MW. Preparing for changes in plant disease due to climate change. Plant Protect. Sci. 2009;45(Special Issue):S3-10. doi: 10.17221/2831-PPS.
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